The Niger Coup: Implications for Sub-Saharan Africa's Economic Stability and Democracy

President Mohamed Bazoum of Niger was apprehended by a contingent of soldiers who remained loyal to General Abdourahamane Tiani in the early hours of July 26th. Later that very night, the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP) announced a total military takeover. Despite enduring three weeks of global censure and economic penalties, the coup leaders' resolve to retain their grip on power remains resolute.

A Regional Challenge

The ramifications of this coup extend far beyond Niger's borders. With the emergence of a 'putschist-populist' political trend endangering democratic progress, West Africa is at a critical juncture. Over the past three years, the region has witnessed six coups, underscoring the fragility of hard-won democratic gains.

The CNSP's efforts to pressure President Bazoum into resigning with hopes of establishing themselves as pragmatic transitional leaders have encountered his steadfast resistance. In response, the CNSP has threatened Bazoum with charges of 'high treason'. Notably, the coup leaders have rebuffed diplomatic engagement with key bodies such as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the African Union (AU), and the United Nations.

ECOWAS swiftly responded by imposing severe economic sanctions and issuing a threat of military intervention unless the junta restores Bazoum to power. These sanctions are already having tangible effects, with rising prices of imported foodstuffs and intermittent power disruptions.

The Motives Behind the Coup

The coup leaders' assertions of security and governance concerns as motives have been met with skepticism both within Africa and globally. While acknowledging the imperfections in Niger's democracy, it's essential to recognize President Mahamadou Issoufou's compliance with the two-term limit and the generally fair election of his successor, Mohamed Bazoum.

Bazoum's tenure brought progress in security and development, marked by diminished jihadist violence, enhanced girls' access to secondary education, and support for conflict-displaced villagers' return. These accomplishments spotlight the junta's likely parochial and personal motivations, particularly their resentment over Bazoum's dismissal of armed forces chief of staff General Salifou Mody and rumors of General Tiani's impending removal.

ECOWAS: Guardians of Democracy

The ongoing challenge of military coups jeopardizes democracy's future across West Africa. While the region once celebrated civilian-led constitutional government in all 15 countries, recent years have seen a surge of six military coups, including instances in Mali and Burkina Faso. This trend endangers the hard-won progress away from authoritarian rule.

Unlike other coups driven by structural factors like neglect, election manipulation, and security crises, the motives behind Niger's coup appear narrow and shortsighted. It reflects a traditional power grab by a handful of elite military figures, sacrificing stability, developmental progress, and security gains for personal enrichment. The coup's effects on the campaign against jihadist groups and its potential to fracture national unity underscore the gravity of this power play.

The rise of these military coups marks an ideological challenge to ECOWAS's longstanding model of civilian-led constitutional governance, bolstered by close Western and UN partnerships for development and military cooperation. This trend takes root amidst growing disillusionment among young urban West Africans with the established political class and widespread resentment towards former colonial powers, such as France.

The Niger coup's ripple effects across Sub-Saharan Africa underscore the challenges that confront the region. As ECOWAS navigates the delicate balance between restoring democracy and averting a disheartening trend of military takeovers, the economic implications and ideological shifts remain critical considerations in shaping the region's future.