JP MORGAN'S VIEW OF ITS ASIAN STOCKS
- Posted on November 30, 2019
- Investing
- By admin admin
J.P. Morgan is optimistic about Asian stocks, with South
Korea and India positioned to perform particularly well going into 2020.
"We're looking at an MSCI Asia ex-Japan index target of
750 at the end of first half. Year-end, however, we're looking at 700,"
J.P. Morgan's head of Asia ex-Japan equity research, James Sullivan, said on
Monday October 25.
Furthermore, J.P. Morgan said its 2020 year-end target for
the index, which tracks large and mid-cap stocks across Asian markets, including
China, Korea, and India is roughly 8% above current levels.
The investment bank said it is "bullish on Asian
equities," explaining, "With aggressive policy easing this year,
bottoming of the trade uncertainty-driven sentiment shock, and limited macro
imbalances, growth looks set to bottom out in 4Q19 and improve in 2020."
However, Sullivan told CNBC that the environment could
"get significantly more difficult" in the back half of the year.
"You start to turn to the election season in the U.S.,
there's not going to be a lot of policy impulse as we go to that period of
time," he said referring to the 2020 elections in November.
But stocks in Asia could benefit as global technology demand
recovers and companies resume investments. Korean and Indian equities, in
particular, could benefit from these trends and "surprise" investors,
Sullivan said.
For the trend in South Korean stocks, J.P. Morgan said
investors are rotating out of bonds into equities, and out of growth stocks
into value. And Sullivan said, Korea is "reasonably well-positioned"
for both of these changes. That region has been under-performing and is one of
the best value markets globally. Sullivan said, "It's one of the markets
that we have a key overweight going into year-end as well as early next
year." He also said Korean tech stocks could do well as demand heats
up."Names like Samsung that we've seen strong performance (from) are on
our top picks list, as we go through the first half of next year,"
Sullivan said.
For India, domestic policies could help drive those stocks
higher. Sullivan explained, "We're seeing an impulse of fiscal stimulus.
We're starting to see a bottoming out of earnings negative revisions that we've
seen for the past year and a half now."
In September, the Indian government cut taxes on companies
and manufacturers, in an attempt to boost economic growth. Now, Indian
companies only need to pay taxes of 22% on their profits, down from 30%. J.P.
Morgan said in its report that the corporate tax cut could translate to a
"fiscal impulse of about $20 (billion), or 0.7% of GDP).
The firm has an "overweight" rating on cement
manufacturer Ultratech Cement and ICICI Bank. J.P. Morgan said Ultratech is
positioned for "strong earnings growth," while ICICI's valuation is "attractive
relative to its private banking peers."
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