Global stocks continue to be rattled by inflation fears. Wall Street chief's strategist says fears are overblown.
- Posted on March 10, 2021
- Stock Market
- By admin
James Paulsen, Chief Investment Strategist of The Leuthold Group says stock investors shouldn't fear inflation. Paulsen told investors in a letter that inflation is only a concern for stocks when real economic growth is weak.
Investors are increasingly concerned that a wave of spending when the US economy reopens could cause prices to spike, spoiling the financial market party that's been raging since last March.
The strategist said what matters is not either "inflation" or "growth," but the "mix" of the two.
In the letter to investors on Friday, Paulsen said that although inflation may be on the rise, that hasn't always meant poor returns for the stock market as long as real economic growth is strong. Paulsen highlighted the two components that have made up nominal GDP since 1950: annual real GDP growth and annual inflation growth.
"Regardless of the inflation environment, if real growth is Low, High, or Super High, negative annual market returns are not that prevalent," Paulsen said.
Contrary to popular belief, inflation isn't always a bad thing for equity markets. When economic growth is super-high inflation has "simply not been important."
Instead, what's important is the "mix" of annual inflation growth and real GDP growth.
Be the first to comment!
You must login to comment