Equities Rebound Amid Tariff Concerns

March 31st Market Summary

Equities Rebound Amid Tariff Concerns

U.S. stock markets closed mostly higher on Monday as major indexes recovered earlier losses, despite growing concerns over potential new tariffs from the Trump administration.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1% to 42,001.8.

• S&P 500 gained 0.6% to 5,611.9, after initially dropping as much as 1.65% during the session.

• Nasdaq Composite edged down 0.1% to 17,299.3.

Most sectors finished in positive territory, led by consumer staples, while consumer discretionary stocks were the only laggards.

Tariff Uncertainty & Economic Outlook

President Donald Trump is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs this week, targeting "all countries," according to CNBC. The move follows last week's decision to impose a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks.

Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month recession probability from 20% to 35%, citing slower economic growth and weaker consumer confidence. The firm now forecasts:

• Q4 GDP growth of 1%, up from a prior estimate of 0.5%.

• Core PCE inflation rising to 3.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points.

Bond Market & Economic Data

• 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 4.4 basis points to 4.21%.

• 2-year Treasury yield declined 2.1 basis points to 3.89%.

• U.S. manufacturing contraction deepened, with uncertainty reaching its highest level since fall 2022, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Stock Movers

• Moderna (MRNA) plunged 8.9%, leading S&P 500 losses, after the FDA’s top vaccine official resigned, accusing the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services of spreading misinformation.

• Novavax (NVAX) dropped 8.4%, while BioNTech (BNTX) fell 4.1%.

• Pfizer (PFE) edged up 0.5%.

Corporate Deals & Earnings Expectations

• Rocket Companies (RKT) agreed to acquire Mr. Cooper Group (COOP) in a $9.4 billion all-stock deal.

  • Rocket’s shares fell 7.4%, while Mr. Cooper jumped nearly 15%.

• Tesla (TSLA) declined 1.7% ahead of its Q1 delivery report, which RBC Capital Markets expects to miss Wall Street estimates.

Commodities

• Crude Oil (WTI) rose 3% to $71.44 per barrel.

• Gold gained 1.4% to $3,157.2 per troy ounce.

• Silver slipped 0.2% to $34.75 per ounce.