Barclays Wealth CIO warns investors of another Big Tech sell-off
- Posted on October 08, 2020
- Technology
- By Glory
U.S. big tech stocks saw a major global market
sell-off in September, with the major reason being higher real interest rates, according
to Barclays Wealth CIO Will Hobbs.
Real interest rates remove the effects of inflation to
show the real cost of funds to the borrower and the real yield to the lender or
investor(s). They are a measure of interest rates.
“One of the theories around the current context for
markets is that a lot of it is quite dependent on ever-lower real interest
rates, because if you think about the valuation of some of these tech titans,
think about the shape of their cash flows, they’re sort of like long-duration
bonds,” Hobbs told CNBC during a telephone conversation last week.
The Nasdaq which generates nearly 40% of its overall
value from technology stocks, dropped more than 5%, while the S&P 500 fell
almost 4%.
September was the months for a lot of tech activities,
with money companies doing their initial public offering (IPO). There was also
increased price activity in the stock market as shares of Big Tech – Amazon,
Apple, Microsoft, Google, Netflix, and Tesla drove much volatility in the
market.
Since the market crash in March—in the wake of the
coronavirus pandemic—these stocks have outperformed the market, as consumer
demand for their services increased. This happened despite the many
uncertainties surrounding the pandemic and its further impact on the economy.
“The industry has been long obsessed and investors are
understandably obsessed with the idea that you can protect downside and capture
equity upside – that is like the Holy Grail of investing,” said Hobbs.
In Hobb’s opinion much of tech growth stocks
popularity—that is, those with higher and consistent cash flows with increased
earnings and yearly revenue compared to their competitors—was as a result of
the steady fall of real interest rates in recent years. He, however, doesn’t
see an immediate rise in real interest rates. Therefore, Hobbs suggests that a
move higher should be given consideration in the unprecedented policy environments
created by global central banks.
While he expects another major sell-off in Big Tech,
Hobbs admitted that some of these companies have greatly benefitted “economically
or structurally” amid the pandemic. As a result, the impact of the pandemic
helped them revamp their business models and put them in the best position to
lead the restructuring of the corporate age.
“One of the big concerns I would have is that
investors have allowed, or will increasingly allow, or are already allowing,
their portfolios and their multi-asset class batch of investments to get sucked
into an ever-smaller vortex of recent winners, from gold to tech titans to
those kinds of names, in the assumption that the future looks a bit like the
recent past,” Hobbs said.
With a change in regimes, Hobbs also shows how such
changes affect regulatory tolerance, inflation, and real interest rates in
most-sought-after investments like Big Tech and gold. He advises investors not
to concentrate their portfolios or batch of investments on winners only, but to
also “own some losers as well” to avoid any uncertainty in the future due to a
regime changes.
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