Angola Sets to Go Against 2024 OPEC Oil Output as Nigeria Accepts Fate

OPEC has partially settled the dispute that occurred some weeks back as some top oil-producing countries (Nigeria and Angola) clamoured for an increase in their production quota in 2024.  

Yesterday, Nigeria was given the right to an oil output target of 1.5 million barrels per day for 2024, while Angola rejected the OPEC quota as they plan to produce more in 2024.

However, this differed from Nigeria's expectations, as the Bola Tinubu-led administration pegged the nation's crude oil output at 1.78 million bpd for next week.

The move on crude oil output followed a meeting in June where OPEC+ agreed on a complex deal that revised production targets for several members.

Also, according to a statement from the group of oil-producing countries, OPEC lowered the oil output of Angola, which is considered the second-largest oil-producing country in Africa.

OPEC has three consultancies tasked with verifying the production of Nigeria, Angola, and Congo, including Rystad Energy, IHS, and Wood Mackenzie.

Based on that, Nigeria has been given a 2024 target of 1.5 million barrels per day, Angola 1.11 million bpd, and Congo a target of 277,000 bpd.

In June, it had been agreed, pending the assessments by the consultancies, that Angola could produce 1.28 million bpd, Nigeria 1.38 million bpd, and possibly as much as 1.58 million bpd, the report shows.

However, the African nations still need to meet previous oil-producing quotas due to underinvestment and security issues.

Sources cited disagreements over African output quotas as a reason OPEC+ postponed an in-person OPEC+ meeting scheduled for November 26 until yesterday, Reuters said.

On Thursday, Bloomberg reported that Angola was unhappy with its 2024 output target and did not plan to stick to it.

According to some analysts, Nigeria's output, which has been declining for years, has picked up in recent months and has assisted production offshore, which experiences fewer security challenges.

The analyst added that Nigeria aims to hit 2 million bpd in crude and condensate output next year, which is more optimistic than realistic.

Given OPEC's decision, Angola has rejected the oil output given to it by OPEC and says it plans to breach it. This is uncommon among the oil cartel and will push for more issues if not addressed.

“We will produce above the quota determined by OPEC,” Angola’s OPEC governor, Estevao Pedro, said in an interview on Thursday. “It is not a matter of disobeying OPEC; we presented our position, and OPEC should take it into consideration,” he said.

Angola, Africa’s second-largest crude producer, will pump 1.18 million barrels a day from January, Pedro said, above the 1.11 million quota set out in the OPEC agreement on Thursday.